Joshua Pollack | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

How to prevent war with Iran

Joshua Pollack — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 08:03:17 -0500

The pace of events in the confrontation between Iran, Israel, and the United States has accelerated rapidly in the last few months. The mysterious destruction of an Iranian missile facility in November was followed by a new wave of US-organized sanctions against Iran's central bank.

Missile control: A multi-decade experiment in nonproliferation

Joshua Pollack — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 22:39:53 -0400

Even in the best case, nonproliferation initiatives can take years to bear fruit. They also tend to yield something other than complete success. Few things illustrate this point as well as the case of missiles. The effort to stop their spread is usually dated to November 1982, when President Ronald Reagan signed National Security Decision Directive 70.

Guarding against disaster: As Japan's tragedy becomes more serious, so does the need to learn from it

Joshua Pollack — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 16:59:36 -0400

Even as it worsens, Japan's nuclear accident still pales in comparison to Japan's natural disaster. The estimated death toll from the earthquake and tsunami, now climbing toward five figures, numbs the imagination. It seems almost tasteless to dwell on what amounts to a minor, if sensational, feature of an incomprehensible tragedy.

The high stakes of New START

Joshua Pollack — Mon, 06 Dec 2010 15:07:27 -0500

With President Obama determined to bring New START to the Senate floor before the end of the year, the national security establishment is virtually unanimous in its support of the treaty.

New START and the allure of strategic superiority

Joshua Pollack — Fri, 24 Sep 2010 13:54:59 -0400

After countless Senate hearings and nearly six months after the signing ceremony in Prague, the New START treaty has successfully passed out of committee. The support of the necessary 67 out of 100 senators appears likely but is not yet a done deal; as a Senate staff member told the Washington Post, "The administration is still going to have to work on these votes."

Contending with the new "radioactive patriotism"

Joshua Pollack — Tue, 20 Jul 2010 07:20:24 -0400

A few weeks ago, it seemed as if the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation communities had any number of new reasons for optimism. April brought the New START treaty, the Nuclear Posture Review, and the 47-nation Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, D.C. The 2010 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference concluded in May with a hard-won consensus. Finally, in early June, the U.N.

What nonproliferation diplomacy can and can't achieve

Joshua Pollack — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 11:30:58 -0400

Multilateral diplomacy is hardly destined to become a spectator sport. For most people--for almost all people, really--"talk shops" like the United Nations fail to get the blood racing. If successful, they tend to produce results gradually, fitfully, and by a series of compromises.

Is a nuclear nonproliferation consensus within reach?

Joshua Pollack — Mon, 03 May 2010 17:30:17 -0400

Thanks to the participation of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the eighth conference "to review the operation" of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is attracting more attention than these affairs usually do. When it concludes on May 28, the NPT Review Conference may not yield a final document expressing the consensus of all 189 NPT member states--but that does not mean the event will be less than spectacular. On only its first day, the conference produced some fireworks.

What Obama's Nuclear Posture Review accomplishes

Joshua Pollack — Wed, 07 Apr 2010 20:38:07 -0400

After repeated delays, the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review--just the third such effort since the end of the Cold War--is finished. This document has been by far the most anticipated of its kind. Judging by occasional reports, it has been extensively coordinated and worked over--the hallmarks of a high-priority policy document.

Extended deterrence and the tactical nuclear mirage

Joshua Pollack — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 17:50:26 -0500

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the need to reassure allies has become, perhaps by default, one of the more important rationales for continuity in U.S. nuclear posture. In fact, a view frequently expressed by current and former U.S. officials holds that Washington still maintains the largest strategic nuclear arsenal in the world precisely to provide these assurances.

Is the cyber threat a weapon of mass destruction?

Joshua Pollack — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 11:13:16 -0500

Google's surprise announcement of "a highly sophisticated and targeted attack" on its systems--a case of computer-aided espionage--has also raised the specter of offensive warfare. Defense News quotes Adm. Robert Willard of U.S.

The Nuclear Posture Review, now and later

Joshua Pollack — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 12:16:43 -0500

The long-awaited report of the third Nuclear Posture Review is now scheduled for delivery to Congress on March 1. According to a recent New York Times article, the posture review will consider the prevention of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism to be equally as important as the nuclear deterrence mission.

Time for a test-ban bargain

Joshua Pollack — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 16:32:51 -0500

On the face of it, quickly bringing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) before the U.S. Senate for ratification seems like an easy choice. In 1996, Washington signed the long-sought treaty, which reinforces the nonproliferation regime by banning all nuclear explosions. No U.S. nuclear testing has taken place since 1992, and there is scant interest in picking up where we left off.

Reducing the role of nuclear weapons

Joshua Pollack — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 13:23:46 -0400

In his April 5, 2009 speech in Prague, President Barack Obama pledged to "take concrete steps toward a world without nuclear weapons." In particular, he promised to "reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy, and urge others to do the same." This was not merely an idealistic gesture. Bounding the role of the U.S.

Deconstructing the Iranian challenge

Joshua Pollack — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 16:04:39 -0400

Long-awaited talks between Iran and six major powers (Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United States) start on Thursday, October 1, in Geneva. Bolstered by last week's revelation of a enrichment facility hidden under a mountain near the Iranian city of Qom, Western officials reportedly will press Iran to commit to the Additional Protocol, an agreement that allows wide-ranging access for international inspectors.

Getting back to basics on missile defense

Joshua Pollack — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 14:34:42 -0400

The Obama administration has inherited a Gordian knot in strategic security affairs, but no sword. Instead of seizing opportunities to make far-reaching changes to post-Cold War nuclear posture, the previous two administrations pursued NATO expansion and national missile defense deployment. These choices set the scene for the Pentagon's missile defense review, which is expected to conclude shortly.