Web Edition | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Israel ponders a nuclear Iran

Avner Cohen — Tue, 17 Aug 2010 12:48:26 -0700

Of all the international nuclear-related challenges facing Israel, the most urgent and important is the possibility of a nuclear Iran.1 Israel's intense response to Iran tells us much about Israel's own existential predicament. The consensus in Israel is that the advent of a nuclear Iran, albeit depending on what this would mean exactly, would pose an unprecedented threat to Israel. For the first time, Israel would confront a hostile state in the region that possesses nuclear weapons.

Synthetic biology: Harbinger of an uncertain future?

Malcolm Dando — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 07:33:00 -0700

It is hard to imagine that only three years ago, back in 2007, there was such a lack of awareness of dual-use and related biosecurity issues among practicing life scientists. Even the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) was almost unknown. For me, this brand of unawareness was confirmed when, that year, Alexander Kelle attended "Synthethic Biology 3.0", an international convention on synthetic biology that was held in Zurich, and interviewed some of the leaders in the field on dual-use and biosecurity issues.

Now showing: Countdown to Zero

Hugh Gusterson — Tue, 03 Aug 2010 13:53:31 -0700

Great historical changes begin as the quixotic obsessions of a vanguard of idealists who are seen as dangerous radicals or ideological deviants by many of their contemporaries. Think of the first advocates of the abolition of slavery, the first suffragettes, and the first gay rights activists.

The passing of a climate prodigy

Richard C. J. Somerville — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 12:37:58 -0700

A towering figure in climate science, Stephen H. Schneider, 65, died of an apparent heart attack on July 19, 2010, while flying to London from a conference in Stockholm. The loss of Schneider, a professor at Stanford University, deprives the world of both an outstanding researcher and a gifted science communicator. To his colleagues in climate science, Steve, as everybody called him, has long been known as a scientific pioneer and a role model.

Contending with the new "radioactive patriotism"

Joshua Pollack — Tue, 20 Jul 2010 04:20:24 -0700

A few weeks ago, it seemed as if the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation communities had any number of new reasons for optimism. April brought the New START treaty, the Nuclear Posture Review, and the 47-nation Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, D.C. The 2010 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference concluded in May with a hard-won consensus. Finally, in early June, the U.N.

The olive branch in the West Bank

Hugh Gusterson — Fri, 09 Jul 2010 15:22:39 -0700

Israel's ambassador to the U.S., Michael Oren, was recently quoted as saying that relations between the U.S. and Israel were undergoing a "tectonic rift in which continents are drifting apart." If the quote is accurate, which Oren later disputed, it is surely an overstatement.

Neuroethicists are not saying enough about the problem of dual-use

Malcolm Dando — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 05:01:18 -0700

The minutes of many U.K. Ministry of Defense's secret committees' meetings held during the Cold War period are now available to the public in the National Archives. Thus, we know that one March day in 1959, the Chemistry Committee of the U.K.'s Advisory Council on Scientific Research and Technical Development met in London to discuss the possibilities for developing new chemical incapacitating weapons agents--including ones with neurological effects--something both the United Kingdom and its allies were trying to achieve.

Setback for WMD security

Fissile Materials Working Group — Sat, 03 Jul 2010 05:38:05 -0700

When the Group of Eight (G-8) last gathered in Canada in 2002, the summit meeting was an unarguable success for the future of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) security. The leaders launched a multilateral initiative, known as the Global Partnership against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction, and pledged $20 billion over 10 years to help Russia destroy their WMD stockpiles.

Against counterinsurgency in Afghanistan

Hugh Gusterson — Thu, 01 Jul 2010 08:42:57 -0700

It says something about American politics that Gen. Stanley McChrystal was not fired because U.S. casualties in Afghanistan are running at record levels, because the much vaunted Marja initiative has failed, or because the Kandahar offensive is already in trouble during its preliminary rollout. No, he was fired because he and his team embarrassed the White House with carelessly frank talk to a journalist. "This is a change in personnel, but not a change in policy," said President Barack Obama in announcing General McChrystal's dismissal.

Right-Sizing the "Loose Nukes" Security Budget: Part 2

Kenneth N. Luongo — Fri, 25 Jun 2010 10:08:42 -0700

In Part 1 of this article, the recent and historical budgets for securing vulnerable nuclear materials around the globe were analyzed. Recommendations were also made for increasing the budgets for the key National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) programs, including the International Nuclear Material Protection Cooperation (INMPC) and Global Threat Reduction Initiative (GTRI) programs, in fiscal year (FY) 2010 and then through 2014.

Reality check: No time to waste before the 2011 BWC Review Conference

Malcolm Dando — Tue, 15 Jun 2010 08:16:34 -0700

With the end of the academic year approaching and the 2010 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference already over, I had been looking forward to a little relaxation: After tidying my office, I planned to sit back and watch England win the World Cup in South Africa. Unfortunately for me, my summer plans were dashed when I realized that my office begged for much more than mere tidying. I was quickly brought back to reality--and that return to reality was not connected to England's chances of winning the World Cup.

What is nuclear security worth in 2011?

Fissile Materials Working Group — Tue, 08 Jun 2010 08:57:37 -0700

If the car bomb in Times Square contained just one of the tens of thousands of radioactive sources that exist in the U.S. and it had successfully detonated, this American landmark would be uninhabitable for months or years to come. And, if the attack were with an improvised nuclear device instead, a large portion of Manhattan would have been destroyed. We were lucky in many ways that day, but these are real threats posed by ever-bolder terrorists, and our luck might not last forever.

What nonproliferation diplomacy can and can't achieve

Joshua Pollack — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 08:30:58 -0700

Multilateral diplomacy is hardly destined to become a spectator sport. For most people--for almost all people, really--"talk shops" like the United Nations fail to get the blood racing. If successful, they tend to produce results gradually, fitfully, and by a series of compromises.

Bunker mentality: Is NNSA digging itself into a hole at Los Alamos?

Greg Mello — Wed, 26 May 2010 13:54:29 -0700

The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) and Congress are currently weighing whether--and at what pace and scale, and with what capabilities--to build two large production facilities for warhead components with a combined price tag in the range of $6-7 billion.1

While on the surface these plans appear settled, there has been no administration or congressional go-ahead to build either project, and none are warranted. Beneath the surface, significant unresolved issues concerning mission, urgency, scale, budget, and design remain.

Right-Sizing the "Loose Nukes" Security Budget: Part 1

Kenneth N. Luongo — Tue, 25 May 2010 09:05:50 -0700

Highlighting the danger posed by nuclear terrorism and the need for an effective response, President Barack Obama came to office promising to "secure all vulnerable nuclear materials around the world within four years." The necessity of this goal is unquestioned. In fact, since 2004, at least four published official government reports have criticized the adequacy of the U.S. government's response to the threat of nuclear terrorism. The ability to achieve this objective, however, has been questioned.

Deconstructing the meaning of Iran's 20 percent uranium enrichment

Ivan Oelrich — Wed, 19 May 2010 09:10:36 -0700

On February 11, the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad delivered the "sweet" news that Iran had successfully produced 20 percent enriched uranium. More than anything, the announcement served as Iran's response to the stalemate over purchasing fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor that is used, in part, to produce medical isotopes.

The myth of missile defense as a deterrent

Yousaf Butt — Sat, 08 May 2010 07:49:23 -0700

The Obama administration's long-awaited Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) "establishes U.S. nuclear policy, strategy, capabilities and force posture for the next five to ten years." The review signals a fresh approach to nuclear doctrine; however, its reliance on missile defense as an element of nuclear deterrence is wrong. Such systems are useless, dangerous, and destabilizing, and ramping up reliance on missile defenses because of planned reductions to the U.S.

Is a nuclear nonproliferation consensus within reach?

Joshua Pollack — Mon, 03 May 2010 14:30:17 -0700

Thanks to the participation of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the eighth conference "to review the operation" of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is attracting more attention than these affairs usually do. When it concludes on May 28, the NPT Review Conference may not yield a final document expressing the consensus of all 189 NPT member states--but that does not mean the event will be less than spectacular. On only its first day, the conference produced some fireworks.

Missile defense: The future of NATO burden sharing?

Thomas Young — Sat, 01 May 2010 10:35:32 -0700

"If you are a NATO member, you have to work for collective security," Bulgarian Prime Minister Boiko Borisov recently remarked in response to reports that his country is positioning itself as a potential host for components of the reconfigured European missile defense system. Borisov's statement encapsulates the spirit of NATO burden sharing: allies collectively shouldering the costs, risks, and responsibilities of maintaining adequate defenses.

Reforming the NPT to include India

A. Vinod Kumar — Sat, 01 May 2010 09:53:12 -0700

For decades now, India has obstinately resisted the idea of joining the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), claiming that the treaty is both flawed and discriminatory. Thus, India, a country with a nuclear weapons arsenal, has long stood outside of the nonproliferation regime. Yet recent government statements seem to indicate that New Delhi is rethinking its stance on the treaty--a very timely discussion, given the upcoming 2010 NPT Review Conference, at which reforming the treaty to reflect current security considerations is likely to be a topic of deliberation.