Web Edition | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Even if simplicity is the only criterion, cap-and-trade might still be the best bet

Gernot Wagner — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 06:47:18 -0700

Roundtable Topic: Carbon tax vs. cap-and-trade

Any system clearly needs to be well-designed. On that point, we all agree. The question then becomes whether a cap-and-trade system or a tax would allow for the best possible system to be put in place. We've already argued that a cap would be much more preferable on environmental grounds. So now we'll turn to simplicity.

Tough governmental decisions must be made if nuclear is to expand

Miles A. Pomper — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 08:32:24 -0700

Roundtable Topic: Managing the global growth of nuclear energy

As much as I appreciate Alan Hanson's support for my argument, I don't share his underlying assumption--or Stephen Goldberg's--that nuclear power is certain to undergo a rapid global expansion. Obviously, nuclear industry proponents would like this to be the case, but there are many impediments to nuclear energy's growth.

China's strategies to combat climate change

Changhua Wu — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 13:50:41 -0700

Editor's note: The following article is drawn from findings published in the Climate Group's July report, "China's Clean Revolution."

A carbon tax may look better when considering the current economic climate

Janet E. Milne — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 13:34:32 -0700

Roundtable Topic: Carbon tax vs. cap-and-trade

We seem to have fairly broad agreement that carbon taxes and cap-and-trade programs share similarities, and as David Weisbach and Ken Richards suggest, each is worth its salt only if it's well designed. And I assume we agree that price matters. Just through the market-driven increases in gas prices, Americans traveled 12.2 billion fewer vehicle miles in June than 12 months earlier, a 4.7 percent drop. As others have stated, a fundamental difference between carbon taxes and tradable allowances revolves around certainty of price versus certainty of quantity.

We must take responsibility for the entire nuclear fuel cycle

Jill Marie Parillo — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 14:11:29 -0700

Roundtable Topic: Managing the global growth of nuclear energy

Nuclear energy is very exciting: It's going to solve the energy crisis, end U.S. reliance on oil and the rogue states that sell it, and help developing nations meet their doubling energy demands. This is all possible, we're told, because the U.S. Energy Department, industry, and the national laboratories will develop new technologies, new policies, and new international regimes to facilitate the sale of nuclear reactors and fuel using proliferation-resistant technologies, all the while following nonproliferation codes of conduct.

The merits of a biochemical framework convention

Malcolm Dando — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 09:10:43 -0700

The Bulletin has been hosting an engaging roundtable discussion on the "The Military Application of Neuroscience Research," during which neuroscientist Christopher Green challenged the notion that "traditional arms control approaches could be relevant to this domain." Referring to the recent National Academies study that he chaired, Military and Intelligence Methodology for Emergent Neurophysiological and Cognitive/Neural Science Research in the Next Two Decades, he wrote: "The

Don't forget about the role of politics

Kenneth R. Richards — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 07:37:23 -0700

Roundtable Topic: Carbon tax vs. cap-and-trade

David Weisbach is absolutely correct: The specific design of either a tax or cap-and-trade program is far more important than the issue of which approach Congress adopts. Either approach, properly developed, can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. And conversely, either approach, poorly designed, can lead to real trouble.

The bursting global security bubble

Hugh Gusterson — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 11:49:56 -0700

In the 1930s and 1940s, the West's financial and security structures collapsed. In the grip of a speculative bubble, and in the absence of proper oversight, banks had been allowed to lend more money than they responsibly could. (Sound familiar?) When queasy depositors sought to withdraw their money en masse, the result was a massive collapse of banks and the stock market, followed by the Great Depression.

Using neuroscience technologies in court

Jonathan Moreno — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 10:26:23 -0700

Roundtable Topic: The military application of neuroscience research

The recent New York Times report that Indian courts have begun accepting a version of electroencephalograms (otherwise known as EEGs) as evidence of deception or the absence of deception speak to the urgency of these discussions and to the importance of this roundtable.

Testing the test ban treaty: Week three of the CTBTO inspection exercise in Kazakhstan

Andreas Persbo — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 11:52:37 -0700

It's Wednesday, September 17, and more than two weeks have elapsed since the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) began its mock inspection exercise in Kazakhstan. A quick refresher on the particulars of the exercise: In August, the CTBTO's International Monitoring System detected seismic signals from underground shocks that looked as if they might have come from a clandestine nuclear test in the vast territory of Arcania, a fictional Central Asian republic where more than 20 nuclear weapons test explosions had been openly conducted during the Cold War.

GNEP's true success--restarting the nuclear power debate

Alan Hanson — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 08:56:25 -0700

Roundtable Topic: Managing the global growth of nuclear energy

A valid criticism of the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP), at least as it was originally conceived, is that it focused too much on preferred technologies, without first obtaining an international or domestic consensus on the basis for their selection. Miles Pomper made an invaluable contribution to this discussion when he advised that we "focus on first principles, then technology." Let's take his advice and examine the principles.

2008 world nuclear industry status report: Western Europe

Mycle Schneider — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 13:40:03 -0700

The contribution of nuclear power continues to decline in Europe. As of September, 15 of the 27 countries in the enlarged EU operated 146 reactors (about one-third of the world total), down from 177 reactors in 1989. The vast majority of these facilities (125 units) are located in eight of the western EU countries--see chart. In 2007, nuclear power produced 28 percent of the EU's commercial electricity--down from 32 percent in 2002--and 12 percent of the region's commercial primary energy.

Testing the test-ban treaty: Week two of the CTBTO inspection exercise in Kazakhstan

Rebecca Johnson — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 13:28:37 -0700

As the on-site inspection of the former Arcanian test site entered its second week, the inspection team from the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) has begun to narrow its search for evidence on whether or not Arcania conducted a recent nuclear weapon explosion in violation of its obligations as a state party to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).

It's all about design

David Weisbach — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 09:37:38 -0700

Roundtable Topic: Carbon tax vs. cap-and-trade

I generally agree with Janet Milne that a carbon tax--or even better, a tax on all greenhouse gases--is preferable to a cap-and-trade system. However, if we follow good design principles, either will be effective. The importance of good design outweighs the choice of instruments: A well-designed cap-and-trade system and a well-designed tax look and operate similarly, while a badly designed tax or permit system is a bad idea.

2008 world nuclear industry status report: Asia

Mycle Schneider — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 09:21:49 -0700

Six Asian countries possess nuclear power programs--China, India, Japan, Pakistan, South Korea, and Taiwan. In 2007, they generated 523 terawatt hours--or 20 percent--of the world's nuclear electricity. That, however, represented a 3.5 percent drop in the continent's nuclear generation when compared to 2006. The decrease was mainly due to the shutdown of the seven-unit plant at Kashiwazaki, Japan, which was damaged by a 6.8-magnitude earthquake in July 2007.

Positive spin on GNEP ignores dangerous aspects of partnership

Thomas B. Cochran — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 11:12:49 -0700

Roundtable Topic: Managing the global growth of nuclear energy

Stephen Goldberg has been careful to focus his discussion on the least controversial aspects of Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP), providing fuel services to emerging nuclear energy countries. He ignores the more troubling aspects of the partnership--its reliance on fast neutron reactors and a closed fuel cycle and developing, demonstrating, and deploying advanced nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies and fast reactors for this purpose.

2008 world nuclear industry status report: Global nuclear power

Mycle Schneider — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 08:30:14 -0700

Last Thursday, in the midst of the world media's constant nuclear revival reportage, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had an embarrassing announcement to make. While it has increased its projections for nuclear generation in 2030, nuclear's share of global electricity generation dropped another percentage point in 2007.

Testing the test-ban treaty: An inspection exercise in Kazakhstan

Rebecca Johnson — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 10:27:23 -0700

The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) launched the longest and most complex of its verification field exercises on September 1, with a hypothetical scenario: In late August, the CTBTO's International Monitoring System detected seismic signals from underground shocks that looked as if they might have come from a clandestine nuclear test in the vast territory of Arcania, a fictional Central Asian republic where more than 20 nuclear weapons test explosions had been openly conducted during the Cold War.

The case for cap-and-trade: There's certainty in the environmental outcome

Gernot Wagner — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 08:02:24 -0700

Roundtable Topic: Carbon tax vs. cap-and-trade

Cap and trade sometimes seems like the Rodney Dangerfield of environmental policies: It's popular with the masses (or in this case both presidential candidates, members of Congress, major environmental advocacy groups, and the private sector) but gets no respect from most academic economists and other high-minded policy wonks.

The limits of traditional arms control models

Christopher Green — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 07:54:19 -0700

Roundtable Topic: The military application of neuroscience research

Margaret Kosal made several interesting propositions in her last commentary. One sentence struck me as particularly important and may present an opportunity to integrate three orthogonal threads of this discussion that otherwise indicate a divergence in opinion. She wrote: "For those of us working with traditional international relations theories and theorists, these questions of emerging security impact are also prime opportunities to test previous models and illustrate the importance and potential of technical security studies."