Op-Ed | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Crying wolf about an Iranian nuclear bomb

Jacques E. C. Hymans — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 06:42:18 -0800

The long-simmering international crisis over Iran's nuclear ambitions may now have reached a boiling point. Washington is imposing sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the heart of the Iranian economy. And Tehran, in turn, is threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly a fifth of the world's oil trade passes on a daily basis. The potential for outright war between the United States and Iran has never seemed more plausible.

Staying in the zone

Mark Jansson — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 06:30:51 -0800

Few things have gone right since the 2010 Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference called for a 2012 meeting to discuss establishing a WMD-free zone in the Middle East. Evidence of nuclear weapons-related research in Iran has continued to mount, putting the world, and particularly Israel, on edge. By now, the enthusiasms of 2010 seem almost quaint.

1994 Redux: The rebirth of North Korean leadership

Leon V. Sigal — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 08:18:54 -0800

"It's déjà vu all over again," as Yogi Berra once said. In June 1994 the United States and North Korea were negotiating a deal designed to halt and eventually eliminate the North's nuclear weapons program when Kim Il-sung died suddenly. The talks were recessed.

Second life: The questionable safety of life extensions for Russian nuclear power plants

Igor Koudrik — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 20:16:09 -0800

In response to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, countries such as Germany and Switzerland are preparing to phase out aging nuclear power plants. The Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation (Rosatom), however, is taking a very different approach. In 2001, Rosatom began extending the operation of nuclear power plants that had surpassed their projected life spans.

Hold your fire: Nuclear forces without counterforce

Ivan Oelrich — Fri, 09 Dec 2011 16:44:56 -0800

In April 2009, President Barack Obama outlined his vision for a world free of nuclear weapons before thousands of enthusiastic people in Prague's Hradcany Square. Development of the nation's new nuclear doctrine, documented in the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), was subject to intense speculation in the popular press and, when the document was finally released -- for the first time unclassified in its entirety -- it became, if only briefly, a hot topic of political debate.

Time for a grand bargain in Northeast Asia

Walter C. Clemens Jr. — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 16:26:46 -0700

Nuclear disarmament has taken center stage in most reports on the resumption of talks between North Korean and US diplomats in Geneva, but the nuclear issue may not be resolved unless other conflicts are addressed. Each side has its own goals in the negotiations: Washington wants arms control and security. Pyongyang has a wider agenda that includes not only economic assistance but also military and political security. A grand bargain could enhance each side's objectives and help Northeast Asia become a zone of peace rather than a crucible for conflict.

Free the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty: Functionality over forum

Paul Meyer — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 05:09:57 -0700

History repeats itself, the saying goes, first as tragedy and then as farce. This characterization could readily be applied to the international community's efforts to negotiate a treaty banning the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons. A longstanding objective of the international community, the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) has, tragically, never been the subject of even preliminary negotiations, as the nuclear powers that allegedly support it avoid taking any effective action on the treaty while, farcically, bemoaning its absence.

Nature and malice: Confronting multiple hazards to nuclear power infrastructure

Igor Khripunov — Wed, 07 Sep 2011 18:12:33 -0700

Over the past six months, two geological events in Japan and the United States had similar characteristics but very different outcomes. At Fukushima, 40-plus-year-old reactors shut down as designed on March 11 following a magnitude 9.0 earthquake, but the combination of ruptured offsite power supply lines and generators flooded by the ensuing tsunami led to a massive meltdown.

The coming German energy turnaround

Claudia Kemfert — Wed, 07 Sep 2011 08:35:57 -0700

Following the terrible catastrophe at Fukushima, Germany's government has decided to usher in a sustainable energy turnaround that entails switching off all of the country's nuclear power plants by the year 2022. In the spring of 2011, in fact, eight nuclear power plants were immediately and irreversibly taken off line. The nuclear phase-out is not fundamentally new; in principle, Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union government is re-adopting the policies of the previous "red-green" Social Democrat-Green Party coalition.

A new way to detect secret nuclear tests: GPS

Jihye Park — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 06:48:14 -0700

When North Korea conducted its second known nuclear bomb test on May 25, 2009, the country's leaders took extreme care to conceal the details of the event. They detonated the bomb a kilometer or so beneath the earth, so no radiation could escape; radiation clues could have enabled member countries of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization to more accurately determine the type and size of the bomb tested.

Leaving its comfort zone: Japan's special role in creating a world free of nuclear weapons

Masako Toki — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 21:09:16 -0700

Who could have imagined a year ago that the ceremonies of the 66th anniversary of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki would be so poignant? Who could have imagined that Japan would have to endure another disaster derived from the energy source used to kill hundreds of thousands of people in 1945?

A Presidential Policy Directive for a new nuclear path

Robert S. Norris — Wed, 10 Aug 2011 06:46:42 -0700

The implementation of President Obama's Nuclear Posture Review is now occurring, out of public view but with potentially enormous implications, depending on the outcome. The Nuclear Posture Review was mandated by Congress to establish US nuclear policy, strategy, capabilities and forces for the next five to 10 years. In theory, it was intended to further President Obama's Prague agenda of reducing nuclear dangers and to work toward a world without nuclear weapons, but with global security.

Remembering a humble giant of biological and chemical weapons control

Paul F. Walker — Thu, 04 Aug 2011 16:20:15 -0700

Jonathan Tucker, one of the world's most eminent experts in chemical and biological weapons, arms control and disarmament, and nonproliferation, died recently at his home in Washington, DC. He was 56 years old.

Nuclear safety in Iran, post-Fukushima

Nima Gerami — Wed, 03 Aug 2011 20:12:45 -0700

Although the Fukushima disaster has stalled the ambitions of some developing countries to deploy new power reactors, the Japanese crisis has not seriously affected the expansion of Iran's nuclear energy program. Among the 45 countries that are actively considering plans to build their first power reactors, Iran is farthest along in the process and claims it will connect its Bushehr nuclear power plant to the national grid and begin producing electricity in August.

Crisis management: A good lesson to learn?

Moeed Yusuf — Mon, 01 Aug 2011 19:18:04 -0700

Last month three terror attacks once again struck Mumbai, killing approximately 25 people. The attacks turned out to be the doing of an India-based Islamist outfit, the Indian Mujahedeen, and did not involve Pakistan-based Islamist militants.

In the media coverage since, terrorism experts on South Asia have posited that this attack was not a decisive shift in Islamist terrorism in India -- their argument, instead, was that Pakistan-based militants, increasingly autonomous in their operations, still remain the most likely source of a large-scale attack on Indian soil.

Should we be giving up on low-dose radiation research?

David J. Brenner — Mon, 25 Jul 2011 09:25:14 -0700

In the United States, just one government-sponsored funding program focuses on the health effects of low doses of ionizing radiation. That is the Energy Department's Low-Dose Program, which supports biomedical radiation research at academic institutions throughout the United States. In the most recent presidential budget for fiscal 2012, funding for this program is slated to decrease from $25 million to $14 million. Is this reasonable? Do scientists and policymakers already know enough about the health risks of low doses of ionizing radiation to make quality decisions?

The inadequate US response to a major security threat: Climate change

Francesco Femia — Wed, 20 Jul 2011 12:36:55 -0700

Over recent decades, the United States has dedicated enormous resources -- in terms of money, manpower and national credibility -- to reducing the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, and the global economic crisis. These commitments have been made not necessarily because the potential dangers are expected to materialize often -- many of them are low-probability risks -- but because the consequences if they do are so large as to be considered unacceptable.

Parting words: Gates and tactical nuclear weapons in Europe

Kingston Reif — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 18:49:54 -0700

In a recent speech in Brussels, departing Defense Secretary Robert Gates criticized European members of NATO for allowing defense obligations to fall increasingly upon the United States, continuing a funding imbalance that could lead Americans to question whether the costs of NATO are justified.

Energy planning in response to climate change: Accurate costs are critical

Bruce Biewald — Wed, 13 Jul 2011 19:38:05 -0700

There has been ample discussion in recent years of a "nuclear renaissance," and many politicians and energy analysts believe that a meaningful response to climate change must include a new fleet of nuclear plants in the United States. The long-term planning studies that routinely come out of utilities, advocacy groups, and the Department of Energy now commonly include new nuclear units.

Four lessons from Fukushima: Improving emergency response

Richard Wilson — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 05:13:49 -0700

It appears that the managers of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, taken by surprise, did not know exactly what to do after a massive earthquake and tsunami struck the plant on March 11. Experts in the United States, thousands of miles away, had a duty to provide timely, helpful advice. Both the press and US officials failed. In particular, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's recommendation to stay at least 50 miles away from Fukushima was inappropriate and may have caused unnecessary panic.